The Virginia Project / The Public Sentiment Institute - NEW Virginia Poll Shows Democrats' Advantage Across The State
Mark Warner, an incumbent senator, is defeating all potential Republican nominees. Democrats lead Generic Ballot by 14 points. Trump is disapproved of in Virginia; Spanberger's approval is positive.
This interactive map shows all the responses from the Pollfish panel that was used to conduct this survey from 5/1 until 5/5. This poll was crowdfunded/sponsored by The Virginia Project.
CROSSTABS & UNWEIGHTED DATA: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BHuaXuhWj-xJdeJ4WoIOr778OubyduRuWa8aItCpANo/edit?usp=sharing
The Virginia Project / The Public Sentiment Institute — Virginia 2026 Poll Survey conducted May 1–5, 2025 | n=1,047 Likely Voters | Margin of error: ±3.7pp at 95% confidence
Virginia 2026: Democrats Hold Structural Advantage as GOP Faces Uphill Battle
Virginia Democrats enter the 2026 midterm cycle from a position of genuine structural strength. A new statewide poll from The Virginia Project and The Public Sentiment Institute, fielded May 1 through May 5 among 1,111 registered voters and 1,047 likely voters, shows Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 14 points, Senator Mark Warner holding roughly a 25-point advantage over every Republican challenger tested, and President Donald Trump carrying a net approval rating of 20.5 points underwater among the state’s likely voters.
But this is not a simple story. Populist economic policies have broad cross-partisan appeal. Republicans hold real advantages on immigration and crime. The GOP Senate field is polling at a baseline that almost certainly understates where a consolidated nominee lands. And a hypothetical Stephen A. Smith presidential candidacy runs surprisingly close to JD Vance.
Here is everything the data shows, question by question.
The Electorate: Who Likely Virginia Voters Are
Before getting to the horse-race numbers, it helps to understand who this likely voter pool is. Party identification breaks down as 40.9% Democrat, 35.0% Republican, and 24.1% Independent, a nearly 6-point Democratic registration edge that forms the structural baseline for everything else.
When voters are asked to self-describe their political ideology in more granular terms, the picture gets more interesting. Progressive and socialist Democrats make up 11.5% of likely voters, Mainline/Institutional Democrats 7.4%, Working-Class/Union Democrats 5.3%, and Coalition/Civil Rights Democrats 3.4%, totaling about 27.6% on the Democratic ideological spectrum. On the Republican side, America First Republicans represent 9.5%, Suburban/Professional Republicans 8.8%, Populist/Working-Class Republicans 5.5%, and Libertarian-oriented Republicans 4.5%, totaling roughly 28.3%. The center is occupied by Lean Democratic Independents at 14.4%, Moderate Independents/Centrists at 11.9%, Lean Republican Independents at 10.6%, and Anti-Establishment Independents at 2.6%. Another 4.7% say they have no clear political preference.
This is a diverse, fragmented electorate where the ideological middle matters enormously and where both parties have significant factions that don’t fit neat partisan boxes.
Voter Motivation and Turnout Intention
The enthusiasm signal heading into 2026 is exceptionally strong. Among likely voters, 83.9% describe themselves as “certain to vote and highly motivated to do so,” while another 12.2% say they are “very likely to vote and feel motivated.” Together that is 96.1% of the likely voter pool expressing high confidence they will vote, which is partly a function of how the likely voter screen was constructed, but it does reflect genuine engagement.
On how voters plan to cast their ballots, 59.3% plan to vote in person on Election Day and already know their polling location. Another 19.5% plan to vote early in person and know the details. Mail-in or absentee voting accounts for about 10.4% combined, with 9.5% having already requested or received a ballot and 0.9% planning to request one. Just 1.9% haven’t decided how they’ll vote.
The social proof numbers are also strong. When asked how many of their five to ten closest contacts they expect to vote, 49.8% of likely voters say “all or nearly all of them,” and another 32.4% say “most of them.” Only 4.0% say “a few of them” and just 1.1% say “none of them.” An engaged voter surrounded by other engaged voters is a very different political participant than an isolated one, and these numbers suggest a high-density civic environment in the likely voter universe.
2024 Recall and Vote History
Among likely voters, the 2024 presidential recall breaks down as 42.6% saying they voted for Donald Trump, 50.3% for Kamala Harris, 1.5% for a third party candidate, and 5.6% saying they did not vote. This recall distribution, with Harris winning by 7.7 points among the likely voter pool, is broadly consistent with Virginia’s actual 2024 presidential result, though the “did not vote” rate of 5.6% is notably low in a likely voter screen, suggesting high past participation in this group.
The vote history data confirms this. Among likely voters, 90.8% say they voted in the 2024 presidential election, 72.3% in the 2022 midterms, 85.1% in the 2020 presidential, 60.2% in the 2018 midterms, 76.1% in the 2016 presidential, and 49.4% in the 2014 midterms. Only 3.6% say they did not vote or were not eligible in any of the elections listed. This is a deeply habitual electorate.
Issue Priorities: The Economy Towers Above Everything Else
Likely voters were asked to rank ten issues from most to least important on a scale where 1 is the highest priority. The results are unambiguous. The Economy, Jobs & Cost of Living finished first with an average weighted rank of 4.19, and a full 39.2% of likely voters named it their single top priority, which is roughly five times the rate of the next closest issue.
Healthcare, Social Security & Medicare ranked second with an average of 4.71 and 8.2% naming it their top issue. Crime, Public Safety & Policing came third at a 5.16 average, with 4.2% ranking it first. Foreign Policy & National Security and Immigration & Border Security were nearly tied at 5.54 and 5.58 respectively, with Foreign Policy drawing 4.8% naming it number one while Immigration drew 8.2%. Education, Housing & Family Issues came in at 5.59, with 3.3% ranking it first. Civil Rights, Personal Freedoms & Social Issues registered a 5.89 average with 7.4% naming it number one. Political Corruption, Lobbying & Money in Politics placed eighth on average rank at 6.06, but notably had 11.3% name it their single top priority, the second highest rate of any issue, suggesting a highly activated anti-corruption segment. Energy, Climate & the Environment ranked ninth at 6.09 with 7.6%, and Guns & Second Amendment Rights came last at 6.18 with 5.8%.
The striking thing about the corruption number is the gap between its average rank, eighth out of ten, and its “top priority” percentage of 11.3%, second only to the economy. This likely reflects a smaller but intensely motivated anti-corruption constituency, voters who may not place it in the top half when ranking all ten but who feel more strongly about it than any other issue. That is a different kind of political signal than the economy, which is both broadly important and deeply felt.
Party Trust by Issue: Democrats Dominate Everywhere Except Immigration and Crime
When asked which party they trust more on each issue, likely voters gave Democrats dominant advantages across most of the policy landscape. On Healthcare, Social Security & Medicare, Democrats lead by 27 points, with 54.6% trusting Democrats versus 27.6% who trust Republicans, 13.1% trusting neither, and 4.7% undecided. On Energy, Climate & the Environment, Democrats lead 54.3% to 26.6%, a gap of 27.7 points. On Civil Rights, Personal Freedoms & Social Issues, it is 55.0% Democrat to 29.7% Republican, a 25.3-point margin. Education, Housing & Family Issues shows Democrats ahead 51.7% to 31.0%, a 20.7-point advantage. On the Economy, Jobs & Cost of Living, the issue that dominates all others, Democrats still lead 45.9% to 33.7%, a margin of 12.2 points.
Republicans hold their strongest position on Immigration & Border Security, leading 45.1% to 37.4%, a margin of 7.8 points. On Crime, Public Safety & Policing, Republicans lead 41.8% to 38.3%, a margin of 3.5 points. Guns & Second Amendment Rights is essentially tied, with Republicans at 42.0% and Democrats at 41.2%, a statistical wash of 0.8 points. Foreign Policy & National Security is also nearly even, with Democrats edging Republicans 42.3% to 41.0%, a margin of just 1.3 points.
On Political Corruption, Lobbying & Money in Politics, Democrats lead 36.6% to 27.4%, but the most notable thing about this question is that 29.8% of likely voters say neither party is trustworthy on corruption, the highest “neither” response of any issue tested. That nearly 30% figure represents voters who have checked out on both parties regarding the issue they consider their second-highest priority. That is a significant opening for any candidate willing to credibly own the issue.
The Republican path to competitiveness in Virginia requires dominating immigration and crime messaging while closing the gap on economic trust, a very difficult needle to thread in a state where Democrats have structural party ID advantages.
Generic Ballot: Democrats AHEAD By 14 Points.
On the question of which party they would vote for in the 2026 midterm elections if held today, likely voters said the Democrat Party at 50.8%, the Republican Party at 36.7%, a third-party or independent candidate at 3.2%, and undecided at 9.2%. The net margin is D+14.1.
The most important number here is not the margin itself but Democrats clearing 50%. When a party is already at majority among likely voters, undecided voters become much less important. Even if every undecided voter broke for Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin, Democrats would still win. The math favors them structurally in a way that requires an actual shift in the underlying partisan environment, not just a superior closing argument.
The Republican Senate Primary
If the August 4th Republican primary for Senate were held today, Kim Farington would get 22.3% of likely voters, Bert Mizusawa 23.5%, and David Williams 10.1%. But 39.7% remain undecided and 4.4% say they would not vote in the primary.
That 39.7% undecided rate is the most important number in this section, and it is almost entirely a name recognition artifact. When nearly 40% of your own party’s likely voters can’t make a choice between three candidates, the most parsimonious explanation is that they don’t know who those candidates are yet. This has direct implications for how to interpret the general election matchup numbers below.
Senate General Election: Warner Leads All Three Challengers by Roughly 25 Points
In a hypothetical general election matchup between Kim Farington and Mark Warner, likely voters choose Warner 54.0% to Farington’s 29.3%. Independent Mark Moran draws 2.4%, and 14.3% are undecided. That is a D+24.7 margin.
Against Bert Mizusawa, Warner leads 54.6% to 28.8%, with Moran at 2.6% and 14.0% undecided. Net: D+25.8.
Against David Williams, Warner leads 53.8% to 29.0%, with Moran at 2.9% and 14.3% undecided. Net: D+24.8.
These numbers are consistent to a striking degree. All three Republican challengers are within about one percentage point of each other despite being different candidates with different backgrounds and different profiles. That consistency tells you the Republican number here is more about where the Virginia electorate currently sits relative to the Trump-era Republican Party than it is about any individual candidate’s characteristics. These are baseline numbers, not ceilings. Once the primary produces a consolidated nominee with statewide earned media and a unified Republican base, expect that floor to rise. Historical Virginia patterns suggest gains of 5 to 12 points post-primary for lesser-known Senate challengers, which would bring the margin closer to a genuinely competitive race under the right conditions.
Warner’s 54 to 55% support level is durable across all three matchups, which is notable. Incumbents polling consistently above 50% are in strong position, but incumbents at 54 to 55% are not in danger territory.
2028 Presidential Hypotheticals: Newsom Leads, But Smith Is Remarkably Close
Two hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups were tested. Against JD Vance, Gavin Newsom leads 46.3% to 37.7%, with 4.9% for a third party candidate and 11.1% undecided. Net: D+8.6.
Against JD Vance, Stephen A. Smith draws 33.6% to Vance’s 37.6%, with 11.8% for a third party candidate and a full 17.0% undecided. Net: R+3.9.
The Smith number requires some interpretation. He has never run for office, has no campaign infrastructure, and has made no official indication he is running. For a completely hypothetical candidate with zero name recognition as a political figure, running within 3.9 points of the sitting Vice President of the United States in a state that has trended Democratic for the better part of a decade is a remarkable baseline. The 17.0% undecided and 11.8% third-party numbers, compared to just 11.1% undecided and 4.9% third-party in the Newsom matchup, suggest that many voters are genuinely open to Smith but haven’t formed a firm opinion. That upside potential is real.
The Newsom number is significant in a different way. Republicans have invested considerable political energy in defining Newsom negatively, and yet he still leads Vance by 8.6 points among Virginia likely voters. The Democratic brand advantage in Virginia appears to be larger than any individual candidate’s negatives at this point in the cycle.
Trump Approval: 20.5 Points Underwater, Worst on Epstein
Among likely voters, Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 39.2% approve and 59.7% disapprove, a net of 20.5 points underwater. The intensity of disapproval is notable: 49.3% strongly disapprove versus only 18.2% who strongly approve. That asymmetry of intensity matters in turnout calculations.
On issue-by-issue approval, Trump’s best numbers come on the issues where Republicans hold their broadest advantages. On Immigration & Border Security, his approval is 47.6% with 50.4% disapproving, underwater but his closest result at net -2.8. On Guns & Second Amendment Rights he gets 44.2% approval against 47.8% disapproval, net -3.6. On Crime, Public Safety & Policing it is 44.8% approve and 50.2% disapprove, net -5.4.
His numbers deteriorate sharply from there. On Foreign Policy & National Security, 42.5% approve and 54.6% disapprove, net -12.1. On Healthcare, Social Security & Medicare, it is 38.0% approve and 57.1% disapprove, net -19.1. On Energy, Climate & the Environment, 36.0% approve and 54.9% disapprove, net -19.0. On Iran and Operation Epic Fury, 39.2% approve and 58.0% disapprove, net -18.9. On Civil Rights, Personal Freedoms & Social Issues, 38.0% approve and 56.0% disapprove, net -18.0. On Education, Housing & Family Issues, 36.6% approve and 56.9% disapprove, net -20.4.
On the Economy, Jobs & Cost of Living, the issue voters care about more than anything else, Trump’s approval is 36.8% with 61.2% disapproving, a net of -24.4. On Political Corruption, Lobbying & Money in Politics, he is at 34.0% approve and 58.3% disapprove, net -24.3.
The single most underwater number in the entire survey is Trump’s handling of the Epstein files. Only 27.2% of likely voters approve of how he has handled that issue. 60.7% disapprove. Net: -33.5. That is 12 points worse than his already-poor economy rating and nearly a full 31 points below his best issue number. The Epstein files have become the clearest political liability in the entire survey, cutting across partisan lines in a way that few issues do.
Governor Spanberger: Net Positive at +11
Governor Abigail Spanberger is one of the few political figures to emerge from this survey with clearly positive ratings. Among likely voters, 52.0% approve of her job performance and 40.7% disapprove, for a net of +11.3. The intensity is somewhat asymmetric: 21.9% strongly approve while 28.9% strongly disapprove, meaning her negatives are more intense than her positives, a common dynamic for first-term governors still introducing themselves to the full electorate.
The redistricting referendum she supported also polls positively. Among likely voters, 51.7% approve of it and 42.1% disapprove, for a net of +9.6. Majority approval on a ballot measure that has generated partisan controversy is a meaningful signal about where the broader public, not just partisan Democrats, stands on the question of independent redistricting in Virginia.
Policy Testing: 30 Policies, One by One
Immigration and Border.
On completing construction of the border wall and relocating troops to the U.S.-Mexico border, 47.5% of likely voters approve and 45.0% disapprove, essentially a dead heat at net +2.5. The mass deportation program, framed as starting with convicted criminals, is more popular: 53.0% approve and 41.6% disapprove, net +11.3. Ending automatic birthright citizenship is underwater: 43.3% approve versus 49.7% disapprove, net -6.5. Reinstating the travel ban on majority-Muslim countries is narrowly positive: 46.2% approve, 43.5% disapprove, net +2.7. Sending armed forces into Mexico to combat cartels is slightly negative: 44.4% approve, 47.4% disapprove, net -3.0. Banning residents of Gaza from entering the United States is also negative: 40.9% approve, 44.5% disapprove, net -3.6.
Economy, Tax, and Trade.
This is where the clearest populist consensus emerges. Eliminating federal income taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors is the single most popular policy in the entire survey: 81.1% of likely voters approve, only 13.0% disapprove, for a net of +68.1. That is not a partisan number. It is a consensus. No-tax-on-tips is nearly as strong: 72.3% approve, 19.4% disapprove, net +52.9. Banning companies that outsource American jobs from receiving federal government contracts earns 59.0% approval with 28.2% disapproval, net +30.8. Making the U.S. the world’s dominant energy producer gets 65.7% approval against 20.2% disapproval, net +45.5. Reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% earns 53.1% approval and 37.9% disapproval, net +15.1. Permanently extending the TCJA tax cuts gets 47.7% approve and 26.5% disapprove, though notably 25.8% have no opinion, suggesting many voters don’t have strong views on that specific legislation. The 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports is the only economy policy that is clearly underwater: 38.7% approve, 45.5% disapprove, net -6.8.
Energy.
In addition to the energy dominance question above, expanding domestic oil and gas drilling earns 59.5% approval and 31.9% disapproval, net +27.7. Removing limits on natural gas exports and reversing offshore drilling bans gets 50.2% approval and 35.3% disapproval, net +14.8.
Social and Cultural Policy.
Banning transgender athletes from competing in women’s and girls’ sports is the second most popular policy in the entire survey, behind only no-tax-on-Social Security: 70.2% approve, 20.7% disapprove, net +49.5. The intensity is striking, with 48.2% strongly approving, far outpacing the 13.1% who strongly disapprove. Passing legislation to officially recognize only two genders earns 55.7% approval and 35.8% disapproval, net +19.9. Rescinding federal Title IX protections for transgender students in schools is positive at 44.4% approve and 39.6% disapprove, net +4.7. Cutting federal Medicare and Medicaid funding to hospitals providing gender-affirming care to minors is essentially a push: 44.0% approve, 45.6% disapprove, net -1.6. Expanding school choice by allowing tax dollars to be used for private school tuition is also a push: 43.4% approve, 44.6% disapprove, net -1.2. Eliminating DEI programs across the federal government is slightly negative: 43.7% approve, 46.8% disapprove, net -3.1. Dismantling the U.S. Department of Education is clearly negative: 41.8% approve, 48.6% disapprove, net -6.8.
Foreign Policy and Governance.
Expanding law enforcement funding and giving police greater authority earns 62.5% approval and 28.8% disapproval, net +33.6, a strong majority position. Negotiating an end to the Russia-Ukraine war and stopping U.S. financial support earns 57.8% approval and 29.4% disapproval, net +28.4. Building Freedom Cities on federal land for young families earns 50.6% approval and 25.9% disapproval, though 23.5% had no opinion, suggesting limited awareness of the policy. Ending what Trump calls the “weaponization” of federal agencies gets 53.2% approval and 28.1% disapproval, net +25.0, though given the high neutral/no opinion rate of 18.7%, this framing likely benefits from ambiguity. Building a national missile defense Iron Dome earns 48.8% approval and 34.9% disapproval, net +13.9. Making NATO defense conditional on allied spending earns 47.0% approval and 34.8% disapproval, net +12.1. Providing unconditional military support to Israel in Gaza is negative: 39.7% approve, 47.3% disapprove, net -7.5.
The Most Unpopular Policy Tested.
Replacing career federal civil servants with political appointees loyal to the executive branch is by a significant margin the least popular policy in the entire survey. Only 24.1% of likely voters approve. 57.2% disapprove, including 41.1% who strongly disapprove. Net: -33.1. This is essentially tied with the Epstein files as the two most politically toxic items in the survey. Any Republican candidate who publicly defends this policy in a Virginia Senate race is running against the 57% who oppose it.
Israel PAC Donations: Net Negative
When asked whether they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who accepted donations from a PAC that supports Israel, 9.6% of likely voters said much more likely and 16.6% said somewhat more likely, a combined 26.3% in the “more likely” column. On the other side, 17.9% said somewhat less likely and 16.8% said much less likely, a combined 34.8% “less likely.” The largest single group, 39.0%, said it made no difference.
Net among likely voters: -8.5. The negative sentiment is driven primarily by progressive Democrats and independents.
What This All Means
Virginia enters the 2026 cycle as a genuinely blue-leaning state with structural Democratic advantages on party identification, issue trust, and candidate-specific matchups. Democrats lead the generic ballot, Warner leads all Senate challengers, Spanberger is popular, and Trump is significantly underwater on the issues voters care about most.
But the data contains real warning signals for Democrats as well. Economic trust, while favorable at D+12, is not insurmountable. The Republican advantages on immigration and crime are real. Populist economic policies that are extremely popular cut across party lines in ways that could be weaponized against Democratic incumbents if they’re on the wrong side of them. And the Smith number in the 2028 matchup suggests the Democratic Party’s 2028 bench conversation is genuinely open.
For Republicans, the path is narrow but not closed. The Senate race will look materially different after primary consolidation, name recognition rises, and a single nominee emerges with a focused economic populist message. The most popular policies in the survey, no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, energy dominance, and the transgender sports ban, all align with a particular kind of working-class Republican appeal. A candidate who owns those issues without defending the most unpopular parts of the Trump agenda would be running a very different race than the baseline numbers here suggest.
This is a snapshot, not a forecast. A lot will change before November 2026.
Methodology: Survey designed and commissioned by The Virginia Project and The Public Sentiment Institute. Fieldwork via Pollfish (Random Device Engagement), May 1 through May 5, 2025. Sample: 1,047 likely voters identified from 1,111 registered voters by dropping 64 low-propensity respondents. Post-stratification weighting applied across gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, and 2024 presidential vote recall. Weight cap: 2.5x. Design effect: 1.502. Margin of error: ±3.7pp at 95% confidence, design-effect adjusted. Subgroup margins will be larger. Full crosstabs available at the link above.
Stop pushing Newsom. There are other popular Democrats, and is not as popular as you think.